Why commodity prices will likely decline

Considering that the downward trend of the global economy has not yet changed in the medium and long term, I expect to see a significant decline in commodity prices by the end of this year.

The global economy was in a mild downward cycle before the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the pandemic, supply of commodities cannot meet demand, thus leading to a decrease in inventory. Therefore, the latest round of commodity price hikes is mainly caused by restocking, which will not last long.

As the long-term downward trend of the global economy will not reverse after the pandemic, this round of rise in commodity prices will likely be brief but huge, and we have already entered the late period of price hikes. It is unlikely that we are witnessing the start of a new supercycle of commodities.