Rash decisions to drastically reduce emissions uncalled for

High temperatures and dry weather in China and Europe this summer, with Europe facing deadly heat waves and other extreme weather events, have left many experts wondering whether such kind of weather will become a "new normal" and prompted some to suggest that China make major changes in its national economic layout.

Since the Yangtze River basin and delta region have the largest population concentration and largest share in China's economy, the impact of the heat waves and drought on the country should not be underestimated.

But past data tell us that over a longer time span, devastating floods have occurred during dry weather spells and some areas have been in the grip of severe droughts even during exceptionally wet spells. These phenomena have occurred many a time in the past and thus do not necessarily suggest a change in the trend of climate change.

Judging from the average areas of inundation and drought and the national average rainfall data, China entered a relatively long warm and wet period in the middle of the first decade of this century. And considering that China is facing high temperatures and drought after heavy rainfall in the first half of this year and that the drought this time is less severe than in previous years, they are not likely to have a lethal impact on the economy and people's livelihoods.

So it's too early to say high temperatures and droughts will become the new normal. In fact, it would be dangerous to ask the authorities to implement even harsher emissions reduction measures in order to fight climate change and reduce the chances of extreme weather events. Especially because the extremely dry weather in some places has reduced hydropower generation.

By the end of mid-August, the area of cultivable land affected by drought in the nine provincial-level regions along the Yangtze River was only about 20 percent of China's average annual drought-affected area in the 2010s and 44 percent of that in 2020.

Yet apart from preparing to deal with extreme drought in the near and medium term, China also needs to pay close attention to the risk of a sudden change in weather－from drought to floods in hot and dry areas for instance. It should also make economic and investment arrangements based on long-term climate change trends.

That the Yangtze River basin has been in the grip of high temperatures and drought since late July doesn't necessarily mean a reduction in annual precipitation or drought spreading to other areas. The plentiful rainfall in the first half of this year, which resulted in sufficient water reserves in reservoirs and an increase in the groundwater table, has reduced the risks of drought. So China need not worry excessively about high temperatures and droughts. Instead, it should be extra alert to the risk of a sudden turn in weather pattern from drought to floods in the drought-stricken regions－just like what is happening in Sichuan province now.

It is not uncommon for droughts to be followed by floods and vice-versa even within a year, and if that happens, it is likely to cause serious losses. So the country should make efforts to not only combat drought, but also put in place a contingency plan to deal with commodity market shocks caused by sudden changes in weather patterns.

Since climate change also affects the economy, research, analysis and decision-making must be objective, based on respect for facts and science, and free of the influence of the Western theory that global warming will lead to immediate catastrophes.

The "global warming disaster" theory and policies based on strict implementation of emissions reductions norms have already caused significant losses to sectors of the real economy and hurt people's livelihoods in European countries as well as the United States.

Due to the pressure of inflation since last year and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, those economies are in a dilemma as they pursue contradictory economic, security and strategic goals. China should draw lessons from them and adopt a calm and rational approach toward the rising calls for taking irrational climate change mitigation measures and setting unachievable emissions-reductions targets due to the extreme heat and drought in the Yangtze River basin and Europe.

The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.