Forecast of 2023 global inflation complicated

Driven by long-term structural factors, the era when the inflation rate in developed economies was below 2 percent has passed. High inflation in these economies may last longer than expected and may even become the norm in the future. With three scenario assumptions of optimism, neutrality and pessimism regarding oil prices in 2023 — which is the greatest uncertainty this year — the average price fluctuation range is estimated to be between $70 and $90 per barrel.

Therefore, the global consumer price index is expected to fall to 4.9 percent by the end of the year and the annual median will be about 6.3 percent for 2023.

Against the backdrop of increasing overseas uncertainties and inflation in major economies, China should continue to prevent the risk of imported inflation and structural inflation in its market.