Around 5 percent growth realistic target to be met

China pegged the economic growth target for 2025 at around 5 percent.

The long-term goal for 2035 is to achieve the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country, which requires doubling the nation's total GDP from its 2020 level. This implies that between 2026 and 2035, China's average annual GDP growth rate must reach around 4.5 percent. Given changes in population dynamics and economic scale, experts estimate that China's potential growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) will be between 4.5 and 5 percent. Therefore, setting an around 5 percent growth target ensures a smooth transition between two consecutive five-year plans.

Second, the target highlights China's determination to tackle challenges head-on. On the basis of the 5 percent GDP growth rate in 2024, several challenges are anticipated for 2025. Externally, China will likely face greater pressure due to political shifts in the United States and Europe, leading to stronger external headwinds. Internally, China's total population is falling while the aging of the population is accelerating, increasing domestic economic challenges.