Critical choice
Cooperation between China and the EU is needed to help the world choose the right path
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The modern world is once again at a crossroads — will it choose the path of isolation or strengthening multilateral institutions? Similar dilemmas existed after the two world wars, but they had two opposite solutions. After World War I, there was a rise in separatism, isolation and weak international institutions embodied in the League of Nations, which played no significant role. The policy of economic isolation led to an economic crisis during the 1930s, and as a result, fascism emerged. All of this led to a conflict between powers that considered themselves strong enough to impose their will on others, the weakening of international trade and overall cooperation, and inevitably to World War II, with horrific casualties and destruction.
This year, we commemorate 80 years since the victory in the Anti-Fascist War. As a result of this victory, the United Nations was founded, which, despite the then-bloc conflicts, played a positive role as a place where all the world's major problems were discussed. Rules were established, which everyone adhered to, not always and not completely, but still much more than is the case today. As a result of this cooperation, numerous international institutions were created, which still have a positive role today, such as the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund.
Over the past two decades, the role of the UN has seriously declined, and the world has moved from a phase of cooperation into a phase of conflict. Large countries, primarily the United States, are announcing the introduction of high tariffs, which could limit free trade. This undermines the foundations of the modern economy and will lead to responses from others, which could result in a serious slowdown of global growth and high inflation. Military interventions are taking place in some countries even though there are no UN resolutions for them. It started in the former Yugoslavia, continued in Iraq, and today it is the case in Ukraine, with other examples as well. It seems that the international legal system no longer exists, and everyone, especially great and regional powers, does whatever they want. If such practices continue, it could lead to even more dangerous conflicts than those we see today. In Western countries, the so-called sovereigntists are gaining strength, advocating for a reduction in the role of multilateral and even regional integration. Their concept is "my country first and foremost", separatism, economic isolation, and a reduction in the role of international institutions are the inevitable results of such a policy.
Action is needed to stop this negative trend and strengthen multilateralism as the only way to turn processes in a positive direction. The key question is who can be the leading force in re-establishing the international legal system and renewing political and economic cooperation. Developing countries or small countries certainly have this interest, but they lack the strength to impose it. In fact, cooperation between two global players is needed — one is the European Union and the other is China. The EU is a multilateral institution based on compromise, which is exactly what the modern world needs. Moreover, the EU is a positive example that has survived despite the numerous challenges it has faced. It had to endure the banking crisis, Greece's inability to repay its debts, and especially the aftermath of Brexit. Yet, the EU showed remarkable strength and resilience in overcoming these significant challenges.
China has not had any military interventions and its economic strength and initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative give it significant influence, especially in developing countries. Political and economic stability is an important economic interest for China, creating the conditions for it to continue its impressive economic growth, thereby contributing to the growth of international trade and the global economy as a whole.
The cooperation between China and the EU is particularly significant in the field of promoting free trade. The introduction of the tariffs announced by the US will inevitably lead to a decline in international trade, which would have very negative consequences on the growth of the global economy. The greatest consequences would be felt by developing countries, as well as small countries that already have low growth rates, which are far below their needs. Unlike the major powers, these countries do not have mechanisms to adequately respond to a trade war and would suffer the most severe economic and social consequences. The joint effort of China and the EU in promoting the WTO and the principles of free trade would be supported by a large number of developing countries and could not be ignored by the US. This approach is the only one that can stop the negative trends in the international economy, which will inevitably be the consequence of the announced tariffs. Moreover, insisting on these principles together can provide favorable conditions for the continuation of high growth rates in the global economy.
After the announcement of the US tariffs, the awareness of the need to pursue an independent policy and strengthen multilateral institutions will grow. This would be good for the entire world, especially today as we commemorate the 80th anniversary of the UN, which should be given a stronger role.
In conclusion, the world stands at a critical juncture. The choice between isolation and multilateralism will have far-reaching consequences for the future of global peace, stability, and prosperity. While the forces of isolation and nationalism may seem strong, the need for cooperation and collaboration has never been greater. By strengthening multilateral institutions, particularly those dedicated to promoting free trade, global peace, and sustainable development, the international community can ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated. Only through cooperation can we build a world that is fairer, more prosperous, and safer for all.
In the end, it is up to the global community — including governments, the academic world, and the media — to recognize the importance of multilateralism and to work together to restore its strength. It may not be the perfect solution, but it is the only viable one. The future of humanity depends on our ability to cooperate and build a better, more interconnected world.
The author is former member of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.
