Japan's long-range missile deployment raises concerns

Japan is considering deployment of long-range missiles on the southwestern island of Kyushu, signaling what analysts warn is a shift from a defensive to a more offensive military strategy.

The move is part of Japan's broader efforts to acquire "counterstrike capabilities" to target enemy positions in an emergency, according to a Kyodo News report.

The deployment is expected to begin at the end of the 2025 fiscal year. The missiles may be stationed at the Ground Self-Defense Force's surface-to-ship missile regiment garrisons in Yufu, Oita Prefecture and the city of Kumamoto, Kyodo News citing Japanese government sources said.

On Sunday, Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki met with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi to oppose the deployment of long-range missiles in his prefecture.

The missiles are an upgraded version of the GSDF's Type-12 land-to-ship guided missile, with an extended range of 1,000 kilometers. This range places the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and coastal regions of China within striking distance.

Rupert Schulenburg, assistant editor of The Military Balance, an annual assessment of global military capabilities published by the Washington-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote that the upgraded Type-12 system could significantly enhance Japan's coastal defense and maritime attack capabilities. However, he pointed out that it is just one of several stand-off missile systems Japan is acquiring.

Kyushu's geographical position makes it strategically significant, given its proximity to the Chinese mainland and Taiwan.

"Once missile deployments are completed, Japan will have greater military leverage in the region, potentially affecting China's national security interests. From a geopolitical perspective, Kyushu is a key location within the 'first island chain', serving as an important stronghold for the United States in its strategy in the Western Pacific," said Liu Qingbin, a former professor at Yokohama National University's Institute of Advanced Sciences.

Located at the westernmost end of Japan's main islands, Kyushu faces both the Korean Peninsula and China across the sea. Analysts said that missile deployments there could impact security dynamics in the Korean Peninsula and give Japan greater ability to intervene in regional conflicts.

Japan's GSDF already operates Type-12 systems at multiple locations in the Ryukyu Islands. The most recent deployment occurred on Okinawa's main island in March 2024, following earlier placements on Ishigaki Island in 2023, Miyako Island in 2020, and Amami Oshima in 2019, according to Liu.

The scholar pointed out that as early as 2020, Japan expressed its intent to strengthen its offensive capabilities, specifically its ability to conduct preemptive strikes. Expanding its arsenal of long-range cruise missiles, he argued, is a key way to achieve this goal. With a range of 1,000 kilometers, the upgraded Type-12 system provides Japan with medium-to-long-range strike capabilities.

"Japan has been seeking to move beyond its policy of 'exclusive defense', advocating for the removal of restrictions on 'collective self-defense'," Liu noted. "This shift aims to equip Japan's Self-Defense Forces with both offensive and defensive capabilities, particularly preemptive strike capabilities."

In January, Japan's Ministry of Defense released a notice on the progress of its "stand-off defense capability" project, publicly revealing for the first time the development of a new ballistic missile. Dubbed the High-Speed Glide Missile for Island Defense, the weapon is primarily intended for "remote island defense".

According to Chinese military reports, this represents another major step in Japan's transition from a defensive to an offensive military strategy.

Japan officially incorporated the High-Speed Glide Missile for Island Defense into its fiscal year 2018 defense budget and later divided the project into two variants: an early deployment model for rapid operational readiness and an enhanced performance model with advanced technical specifications. The recently disclosed missile belongs to the early deployment model, with a range of 500 to 900 kilometers. It underwent four test launches in 2024 at the Pacific Missile Test Center in California and is expected to enter mass production by the end of this year. The GSDF is scheduled to receive the missiles between 2026 and 2027.

Japan's new Defense Buildup Program outlines plans to establish two regiment-level battalions equipped with the High-Speed Glide Missile for Island Defense. The chosen deployment sites — Kyushu Island and Hokkaido — suggest that large portions of East Asia's coastal regions could be within the missile's strike range.

The enhanced performance model is slated for deployment around 2030, with plans for three additional battalions. Japan is also developing an extended-range version of the missile, projected to exceed 3,000 kilometers in range.

In response to Japan's missile development, Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said at a press conference last week that Japan is accelerating its military expansion, a move he described as dangerous and contrary to regional stability. He urged Japan to learn from history and exercise caution in its military strategy, emphasizing that Tokyo should focus on fostering trust with its Asian neighbors through concrete actions.

With US backing, Japan recently accelerated the development and acquisition of various long-range strike weapons. Many analysts argued that Japan's new ballistic missile program surpasses the country's traditionally "exclusively defensive" posture, marking a shift toward more offensive capabilities.

"This warrants close attention and vigilance from neighboring countries," Chinese military reports said.

caihong@chinadaily.com.cn