Change without convulsions

Relations between China and Latin America will continue to advance despite the efforts of the US to drive a wedge between them

The world is currently undergoing changes unseen in the last 100 years, and Latin America is no exception. If one was to summarize the regional situation in 2019 in two key words, they would be "change" and "convulsion". With changes at home and abroad, all Latin American countries have found themselves under enormous pressure for reform, and many have struggled to respond.

Mass protests of unprecedented scale, intensity and duration have swept across Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and Haiti among other countries of Latin America since early October last year. In some countries, there has been no clear leadership by political parties, organizations or individuals; rather, it is social media that has played a key role in mobilizing and organizing the ordinary people to take to the streets.

Although the specific reasons behind protests differ across Latin American countries, there are some common themes.

First of all, neoliberal economic policies in many countries led to poorly diversified economies prone to recessions. Based on the latest report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the regional economy is expected to have grown at a paltry 0.1 percent in 2019, making it the slowest growing bloc in the world for the fifth year in a row. In recent years, as a result of unequal and unfair distribution of wealth and growing inequality, the lower-middle class, having barely emerged out of poverty, have fallen back into poverty. Latin America is now home to 191 million people living below the poverty line, which is equivalent to 30.8 percent of its population; 72 million people, or 11.5 percent of the population live in extreme poverty.

Second, incompetent and corrupt political elites and parties in many Latin American countries have struggled to cope with current challenges, and have lost the trust of their people. As the demands of large swathes of the population have been long ignored, resentment has brewed as people cry out against the rising costs of living, the privatization of education, healthcare and public services, and make demands for such things as increases in the minimum wage and pension payments.

Third, recent years have seen more military interventions in politics, such as those in Brazil, Bolivia, Venezuela and Uruguay. Also, interventions by the United States, both direct and indirect, have also been a factor behind the frequent convulsions in the region. The current US administration has shifted its foreign policy toward the region by reviving the Monroe Doctrine, coming down hard on the leftist governments such as those in Cuba and Venezuela in an attempt to divide and conquer, although it does not have a coherent and unified approach toward the region.

It is against this backdrop that the Belt and Road Initiative has led to new progress in China-Latin America relations, which have been making great strides and growing in quality, momentum and sophistication. Out of the 33 Latin American countries, 24 have diplomatic ties with China, 19 have signed memorandums of understanding within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, and 12 are strategic partners. Close contact between senior leaders has also been driving China-Latin America cooperation. President Xi Jinping paid his fifth visit to the region in 2019, and the heads of states or governments of six Latin American countries have visited China.

Trade between China and Latin America has exceeded $300 billion, and China has become the second-largest trading partner of the region. The total stock of Chinese investment in Latin America has reached $406.77 billion, making the region the second-largest recipient of China's outbound investment. There are now a total of 2,500 Chinese companies in Latin America. China-Latin America cooperation has proven to contribute to economic development, social stability and better quality of life in Latin American countries. China does not intervene in the internal politics of Latin American countries and is against other countries attempting to do so. Instead, China promotes dialogue as a way to resolve internal differences and conflicts.

However, the US looms large in relations between China and Latin America. The current US administration is deeply unsettled by the rapid development of China's ties with the region. The current administration is pushing for a Neo-Monroe Doctrine, trying to prevent its "backyard" from getting too close to China. The US blames China for supposedly burdening Latin America with unsustainable debts to threaten the latter's economic development. The US has also been giving the China-friendly countries a hard time, forcing Latin American countries to take sides and doing all it can to prevent them from deepening ties with China. Nevertheless, continuing to develop their relations is in the interests of both China and Latin American countries, which is why the US attempts to hinder these ties will be futile.

In 2020, we can expect the chaos in Latin America to calm down to a certain extent, but the specific countries themselves should remain cautious. Latin American countries can expect to see their economies improve marginally this year. For governments, the biggest challenges in 2020 will be reducing social inequality, healing social divisions, safeguarding peace and stability, and building a more equitable and rational governance system. On Jan 8, Mexico became the Pro Tempore President of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). Mexican President Lopez Obrador has pledged to work toward reviving CELAC and promoting solidarity, cooperation and development in the region, proposing a 14-point work plan for CELAC 2020, with the eighth point featuring a ministerial forum to be jointly held with China during the third China International Import Expo in Shanghai in the second half of this year. It is our hope that CELAC will play a positive role in fostering cohesion and development in Latin America, as well as friendly ties and cooperation with China.

The author is an honorary member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.