How green can the next valley be for HK emigrants?

Richard Cullen urges people considering relocation to take a good look at how things really are in their intended destinations before leaving, and above all: Don't burn bridges

Adventurous Hong Kong people have long shown a willingness to relocate, many no doubt influenced by the grass is greener syndrome. They have consistently left seeking a better life for their families. Some have also looked to escape political concerns. While many have relocated successfully, many others have returned.

There are widespread reports today that increasing numbers of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region residents are thinking along these lines again. A few seek to escape being charged with serious crimes arising out of the terrible political violence which ravaged Hong Kong in the second half of last year. Still more harbor general concerns about how certain freedoms may be limited after the passage of the National Security Law. These concerns - widely encouraged by some with a political agenda - are regularly misguided and exaggerated, as a direct comparison with their intended destinations would show. Nonetheless, they are still sincerely felt.

Most looking at relocation today, as in the past, are primarily concerned about building a better future for their families, however. Political considerations may figure, but are typically ancillary.

It is easy, but unwise, when looking at relocation, to become too focused on what it is that one wants to leave behind. Far more important is to think carefully about what you - and your family - may be stepping into with any move.

The most popular destinations for migration continue to be the developed Anglo-democracies: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. These are all, however, comparatively less attractive than they were two to three decades ago and, looking forward, they each face fresh difficulties that foreshadow possible declining prospects for new migrants.

Each of these jurisdictions chooses government by regular elections and they offer apparently robust systems for protecting individual rights. Any swift Google search will confirm, however, that all of these jurisdictions have also long had significantly higher general crime levels and worse drug and alcohol abuse in schools compared with Hong Kong. Next, they all have much higher taxes and they each tolerate levels of service inefficiency seldom encountered in Hong Kong. More recently, their vaunted human rights protections have proved to be rather flimsy as anti-Chinese sentiment has gained far greater traction recently. In other words, it is not all sunny uplands.

Moreover, how these countries have each handled the extraordinary challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic reveals some important points, both directly and indirectly.

Directly, even though it is facing a fresh COVID-19 challenge, New Zealand has done a first-rate job. It took the very best advantage of its remote island geography. Australia is next best among the five, but it has encountered two major lapses, first in New South Wales and more recently, much worse, in Melbourne. The US, meanwhile, has created a First World inverted gold standard by getting so much lethally wrong in managing this pandemic, exposing manifestly sordid aspects within the core of its political system at the same time.

Next, let's consider the indirect consequences. In all these jurisdictions, governments have rightly moved to try to moderate the dreadful impact of the pandemic on the livelihood of millions of citizens and the widest range of employers and businesses. They have done this by providing - when they can agree - a vast array of new, specialized welfare and business support measures. In Australia, lobbying is already underway to retain certain of these new welfare measures over the longer term.

All of this spending has required additional public sector borrowing on an immense scale. Freshly initiated debt is accumulating with each passing month. Fortunately, we live in a time of very low interest rates, so the cost of borrowing is less grim than it might be. But this debt is going to have to be paid back before long. None of these jurisdictions has fiscal reserves even remotely comparable to those held by the HKSAR government. This means there is a distinct possibility that new migrants will face significantly higher taxation in all these jurisdictions in the coming years.

Next, consider education, using Australia as a prime example. Tertiary education was until recently one of its top "exports". International student numbers have shrunk to a fraction of what they were, and Australian universities now face multibillion-dollar operating deficits. Even the highly rated University of Melbourne, along with many others, is today laying off hundreds of staff. Urged on by Washington, Canberra has made a forbidding situation far worse by engaging in plainly avoidable disputes with Beijing. Without Chinese mainland and other international students, the entire education funding model is in severe peril. That means - for migrants - that tertiary and even secondary education in Australia may be acutely compromised compared to what has been offered, because of dire funding shortfalls.

Indeed, China has been, by far, Australia's most significant trading partner where the trade surplus in Australia's favor exceeds A$50 billion ($36 billion) each year. If this surplus slides over the coming decade, then Australia's standard of living will also slide.

China as a whole and its Hong Kong SAR have clearly managed the pandemic better than any of the five listed countries, apart, possibly, from New Zealand. The HKSAR, meanwhile, has fiscal reserves equivalent to about two years of regular total public spending. The many pandemic support measures in Hong Kong have required zero borrowing. Unlike in Australia, for example, no pressure is building for tax-lift changes to repay huge new debt accumulations.
Moreover, the HKSAR remains robustly linked to and supported by the Chinese mainland, the single major economy to come through the pandemic without falling into a severe recession - and now growing with more potency than any other leading economy.

When one looks at the fiscal, economic and education disturbances confronting Australia - mirrored elsewhere - new migrants from Hong Kong can expect higher taxation, a continuing disruption to business as usual, plus elevated levels of race-based disparagement. When one looks at how well-placed the HKSAR is, in comparison, those relocating would be wise to burn as few bridges as possible when moving. Past experience has shown how Hong Kong emigrants often make a great success of relocating - but more than a few also eventually find their way back to the HKSAR. It is likely that this pattern will repeat itself.

Let me conclude with a declaration of bias. I first came to live in Hong Kong in late 1991. It is a city which I quickly came to love and have loved ever since. When I step outside today, I still see - based on any measured, comparative assessment - a remarkable, bustling green valley right here in Hong Kong.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.