Chinese exporters need to prepare for bigger test

China's exports to the US plummeted 24 percent year-on-year from January to May, while Mexico's exports to the United States surged 5 percent, according to data of the US Department of Commerce. As of the end of May, China accounted for 13 percent of the US' imports, compared with the 15 percent of Mexico.

It is evident that US-China trade has passed its peak. The shift is being driven by a combination of economic cycles, trade rules and geopolitical factors.

The decline of China's exports to the US is consistent with the economic cycle of developed countries. Data show that China's exports to European countries have declined to varying degrees this year as well, and the export curves of China to the US and the European Union countries have moved almost simultaneously, partly because of the impacts of interest rate hikes on the economic growth of developed countries.