Growth beckons despite bumpy road ahead

The nation saw year-on-year GDP growth of 6.3 percent in the second quarter, with the figure for the first half standing at 5.5 percent compared to the same period in 2022, said the National Bureau of Statistics in mid-July. The results to many were slightly slower than expected, as earlier expectations by the market were around 7 percent. But what we see from the results is the normal fluctuation of the economy in a certain range. In addition, given the impact of the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, deep adjustments of real estate, and the superposition of the entire global economic situation and geopolitical patterns, the recovery that China is going through is more complicated, and different from traditional recovery models.

Based on the figures recorded in June and the development trend of various parameters, we think the bottom of most indicators may have appeared, which is to say, new drivers and supportive forces of China's economic growth will soon gain momentum. And if the government can step up the implementation of a number of targeted, well-combined and coordinated policy measures in various areas critical to securing stable growth, employment, risk prevention and other major fundamentals, the economy is very likely to display a faster recovery in the third and fourth quarters. To this end, efforts should be made in several of the key areas outlined below.

Consumption