Raimondo's visit may have limited impact on relations

US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo is the fourth high-ranking Joe Biden administration official to visit China in recent months. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen, and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry have visited Beijing before her over the past months. These visits, according to reports, are part of the Joe Biden administration's attempts to prevent bilateral relations from deteriorating further and normalize Sino-US ties.

But what can we expect from Raimondo's visit? Given that the United States has taken a series of measures, particularly in fields of high-tech, many of which were taken by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, can Raimondo's visit change things for the better?

From China's perspective, issues on the priority list include the punitive tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the previous Donald Trump administration, which the Biden administration has not withdrawn; putting more Chinese enterprises on the Entity List; export and outbound investment control; and the review process of the Committee on Foreign Investment with respect to Chinese investment in the US. Some of these issues pertain directly to Raimondo as commerce secretary.

Raimondo's stance on China has not been consistent. At times, she has taken a relatively tough stance against China. The rapid expansion of the Entity List with the inclusion of more and more Chinese companies happened under her reign at the Department of Commerce. She has also supported legislation to reinvigorate US semiconductor manufacturing as a means to out-compete China's semiconductor industry by checking its development.

On the other hand, Raimondo, at times, has taken a pragmatic stance on China. She reportedly sided with the US Treasury Department to oppose National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's plan to restrict outbound US investment in China. She is reported to have persuaded Biden to restrict the sanctions against China in the fields of artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum technology. Perhaps Raimondo is visiting China also because she believes it could bolster her policy credentials.

But if the visits of the three high-ranking US officials earlier failed to make much concrete progress, there is no reason to believe Raimondo's trip will change the situation drastically. That's because given the political climate in Washington, it will take some political will and courage to ease tensions with China, which the Biden administration decidedly lacks. And all indications point to the fact that the Biden administration doesn't seem prepared to concede to Beijing's demands to lift the tariffs on Chinese goods and technology exports.

Sullivan floated the concept of "small yard, high fences", and appropriated the phrase "de-risking" from European Union leaders to sugarcoat the strategy of US "decoupling" from China. This is not so much about sharing or exporting this or that technology to improve cooperation between China and the US. This is about a poisonous political atmosphere, created by officials like Sullivan, which has somewhat destroyed investors' confidence that the flow of capital and technologies is beneficial to all sides.

By the way, the flow of technologies across the Pacific is not always a one-way affair as some politicians within the Beltway usually think. For instance, Chinese electric vehicle battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Limited will provide preparatory and operational services for US car maker Ford Motor's battery plant in Michigan in the US.

As such, Washington's attempt to restrict the flow of capital and technologies will not have a devastating impact on China's technology development trajectory. The effect will be similar to attempts made by the British government to block the technology flow to the US in the 19th century. Back then it was textiles. Today, it is artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing. In terms of capital, the flow of US venture capital into China has already dwindled to a trickle. The only impact of the US' move will be the US venture capital community losing a good market to make some money.

Yet there is at least one bright aspect of Raimondo's visit to China. That is to pave the way for a possible Sino-US leaders' meeting later this year.

Trump's visit to China in 2017 was the last state visit by a president of either country to the other country. That neither the Chinese nor the US president has paid a state visit to each other's country despite Sino-US ties being the most significant bilateral relationship in the world is not conducive to maintaining global peace and development. Hopefully, things will change soon.

The author is vice-president of research and strategy at the University of International Business and Economics.