Will Manila stop creating trouble in 2024?

The Ferdinand Marcos Jr government in the Philippines veered away from the previous Rodrigo Duterte administration's South China Sea policy in 2023, by making provocative moves that have raised tensions in the region.

True, Philippine President Marcos Jr, acknowledging the souring of Sino-Philippine relations, has said that his government will "solve that problem of Ren'ai Reef" itself, raising hopes that Manila might navigate a different course and appropriately handle the South China Sea disputes. But the shift in the Marcos Jr government's South China Sea policy is not merely a result of inexperience or wrong policies; it is the result of a confluence of internal and external factors.

First, the imminent deterioration and disintegration of the vessel, BRP Sierra Madre, is the direct reason behind the Philippines' frequent attempts to create troubles in the region. In May 1999, just one day after a US missile dropped on the Chinese embassy in what was then Yugoslavia, the Philippine authorities intentionally ran aground the dilapidated tank landing ship on Ren'ai Reef. Using the excuse of a leaking hull, they refused to tow it away later.