Population dynamics impact East Asia development

Although the global population reached 8 billion in 2022, population growth continues to slow down. While the populations in some regions of the world are declining due to low fertility rates, more regions may go through the same experience in the near future, according to projections.

The global population will reach its peak sometime in the second half of the 21st century, after which it will start declining. Unlike half a century ago, the main driver of population growth is not births alone, but also the longer life expectancy. With the total fertility rate falling below the replacement level in many countries, global population growth will further slow down, and the proportion of children in the total population will gradually decline and that of people aged 65 or above will increase.

Among the sub-regions of the world, the decline in the fertility rate in East Asia is particularly high. As a matter of fact, East Asia completed its demographic transition within half a century to enter an era of low fertility rate and population decline. The population growth rate in East Asia dropped below 1 percent in 1993, while the fertility rate fell below the replacement level. The prolonged low fertility rate has led to negative population growth in China and a couple of other East Asian countries, with features of the second demographic transition becoming prominent.