2025: America First falters, Europe-China in sight

In the United States, policy choices are threatening growth and inflation, while Europe and China are betting on a revived fiscal-monetary tandem.

A few months ago as we were approaching 2025, the global economic landscape presented a contrasting picture of performance — China and Europe were posting disappointing results, while the US maintained a solid momentum.

At the time, in China, growth of 5 percent in 2024 remained fragile, the real estate market was still contracting and consumption was struggling to gain traction. In Europe, the quasi-recession that had persisted for a year and a half was partly explained by the weakness of Germany, whose activity had been contracting since the third quarter of 2023.