US warned not to fuel tensions in South China Sea

For years, the United States' policymakers have warned of an impending conflict with China.

The rhetoric has been relentless, with headlines portraying China as a dangerous adversary, and dire predictions of potential conflicts in the South China Sea.

At the heart of this growing geopolitical storm lies the South China Sea, a region that has been witnessing escalating tensions between China and the Philippines.

The once calm waters have become a potential flashpoint for military conflict, as both countries navigate territorial divide involving critical reefs and waters.

Over the years, minor skirmishes have grown into dangerous confrontations with multiple incidents between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

One of the key triggers of the tension is the Philippines' ongoing occupation of Ren'ai Reef. Since 1999, Manila has kept a rusting World War II-era ship illegally grounded there, to assert territorial claims.

Despite promises by previous administrations to remove the vessel, it remains.

Biased media discourse

As tensions between China and the Philippines have grown, the media's role is also shaping public perception.

The US has long used its influence to shape the South China Sea discourse.

This has led to a strategic shift, with the US publicly opposing China's territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Western coverage of the South China Sea has overwhelmingly portrayed China as the aggressor, often framing its actions in the language of "coercion" and "illegality".

The Philippines has also continued to push its claims in the area, deploying supply missions and arranging journalists' visits.

As a result, the region has become a battleground not just for territorial control, but for control of the global narrative surrounding the rivalry.

Much of this narrative is being driven by initiatives backed by the US and the Philippines, including the "Campaign Plan for the South China Sea", "Project Myoushu", and "Transparency Initiative" which seek to discredit China's legitimate claims and actions in the region.

These projects have enlisted Western journalists to document China Coast Guard operations, framing them as hostile and illegal, and have further fueled a media environment ripe for conflict.

Experts' views

These are the kinds of provocations that can easily spiral out of control, warned John Mearsheimer, a leading expert on international relations.

"The Americans have a treaty commitment to come to the aid of the Philippines, so the Americans could get dragged into a war or a shooting match between the Philippines and China," Mearsheimer said in an interview with China Daily.

A 2016 arbitration ruling, widely quoted by the Philippines and Western allies, declared that China's extensive claims in the South China Sea were invalid.

"The arbitration tribunal was illegal. The tribunal had no jurisdiction over the claims filed by the Philippines," said Wu Shicun, founding president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

China's stance

China maintains that the issue should be resolved through bilateral negotiations, not external intervention.

China, on its part, has called for restraint and patience, hoping to resolve the situation through negotiation.

As former Singaporean foreign minister George Yeo put it,"This is also a message to the Philippines: Do you really want to fight?"

Despite the mounting tensions and the growing military presence in the South China Sea, experts agree that war should not be the inevitable outcome.

"The US and China must find a way to coexist, rather than have a war," said Graham Allison, the scholar who coined the "Thucydides Trap" concept.