Is US tariff deal good or bad for Indonesia?

Indonesia secured a trade deal with the United States on July 16, which, at first glance, looks like a lifeline, as it locks in a maximum 19 percent tariff on Indonesian exports to the US through 2029. The deal was struck at a time of intensifying US protectionism, and offers what appears to be a temporary shield to Indonesia.

But while the Indonesian government deserves credit for navigating an increasingly unpredictable global trade landscape, the devil, as always, is in the details. The US has agreed to Indonesia's offer, but what it has offered is little more than a token rollback of President Donald Trump's unilateral tariffs — highly conditional and tied to his ever-expanding wish list.

The deal may protect Indonesia from ad hoc tariff hikes that the US has subjected China and some other economies. Yet certainty should not be confused with favorability.