Proactive fiscal policy to help stabilize growth

In 2026, global economic growth momentum is expected to weaken, while the ongoing conflict in the Middle East heightens geopolitical risks. China will face significant external uncertainties. However, amid the push of a more proactive fiscal policy and the support of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, China's fixed-asset investment growth is expected to accelerate significantly. Consumption will rise steadily, the drag from the real estate sector on the economy will gradually weaken and domestic demand is expected to grow more robust with continued improvement.

China's GDP is expected to reach around 147 trillion yuan ($21.5 trillion) this year, with real GDP growth likely achieving the target range between 4.5 and 5 percent. Meanwhile, external imported inflation pressures are expected to increase. Coupled with the gradual recovery of domestic demand, price indices will rise moderately. Nominal GDP growth may also fall within the 4.5-5 percent range.